← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sun, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada win | 41% | 34% | 2.25 | fair |
| Alcorcon win | 30% | 38% | 3.00 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1048.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1498.17 | 1547.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.16 | 45.89 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 53.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.66 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |