← Segunda División 2010-11 · Thu, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal B win | 41% | 39% | 2.25 | fair |
| Alcorcon win | 31% | 33% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal B | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1045.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1417.15 | 1480.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.21 | -9.85 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 47.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.35 |
| state index | -1.30 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |