← Segunda División 2010-11 · Fri, May 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche CF win | 57% | 46% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.80 | value: +11% |
| Alcorcon win | 17% | 25% | 6.00 | value: +49% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Elche CF | Alcorcon |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 582.00 | 1039.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1542.05 | 1487.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.32 | 9.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 57.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.39 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.08 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |