← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sat, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal B win | 43% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Gimnastic win | 28% | 23% | 3.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal B | Gimnastic |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 2463.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1446.27 | 1449.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.67 | 4.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 47.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.11 |
| state index | -0.98 | -0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |