← Segunda División 2010-11 · Sun, Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcorcon win | 45% | 54% | 2.10 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.10 | fair |
| Tenerife win | 26% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Alcorcon | Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1020.00 | 1386.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1510.33 | 1409.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.15 | -31.25 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 47.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 0.85 |
| state index | 0.53 | -1.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |