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Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2–3 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2009-10 · Fri, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win46%2.00
Draw29%3.20
Gimnastic win25%4.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricRayo Vallecano de MadridGimnastic
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1422.002091.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
elo1484.591460.22
elo momentum (last 5)20.889.28
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.180.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
league points42.0044.00
league rank13.0011.00
matches since blank5.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days5.006.00
season ppg1.271.33
state index0.15-0.17
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00