← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Young
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 55% | 50% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.76 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 19% | 24% | 5.39 | value: +32% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town −0.75 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Portsmouth −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Anthony Pilkington · Fleetwood Town |
| 15' | ⚽ | Harrison Biggins · Fleetwood Town |
| 41' | ⚽ | Paddy Lane · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Ronan Curtis · Portsmouth |
| 50' | 🟨 | Ronan Curtis · Portsmouth |
| 57' | 🟨 | Paddy Lane · Fleetwood Town |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alex Cairns · Fleetwood Town |
| 80' | ⚽ | Marcus Harness · Portsmouth |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ellis Harrison · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aiden O'Brien · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 23 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 362.00 | 117.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1507.80 | 1410.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.07 | -11.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 51.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| league points | 47.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.76 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.20 | -0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |