← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Feb 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 50% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.58 | fair |
| Burton win | 22% | 24% | 4.33 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland +0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Burton +0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.82 |
| Over | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Burton |
| 6' | ⚽ | Grant Leadbitter · Sunderland |
| 18' | 🟨 | Aiden McGeady · Sunderland |
| 32' | ⚽ | Lynden Gooch · Sunderland |
| 38' | 🟨 | Lynden Gooch · Sunderland |
| 52' | 🟨 | Sean Clare · Burton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Burton |
| 56' | 🟥 | Josh Earl · Burton |
| 56' | 🟨 | Aiden O'Brien · Sunderland |
| 65' | 🟨 | Hayden Carter · Burton |
| 76' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| Charlie Wyke · Sunderland |
| 89' | 🟨 | Mike Fondop · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 50.00 | 81.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1387.26 | 1560.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.18 | 7.61 |
| eye test v1 | -1.40 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 51.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 22.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.53 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.91 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.18 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |