← EFL League One 2019-20 · Wed, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Sarginson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 39% | 35% | 2.46 | fair |
| Peterboro win | 32% | 36% | 3.10 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Lincoln −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.81 |
| Over | 46% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Ivan Toney · Peterboro |
| 37' | 🟨 | Niall Mason · Peterboro |
| 45' | 🟨 | George Boyd · Peterboro |
| 55' | 🟨 | Alex Woodyard · Peterboro |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jake Hesketh · Lincoln |
| 67' | ⚽ | Tyler Walker · Lincoln |
| 71' | 🟨 | Joe Morrell · Lincoln |
| 71' | 🟥 | Siriki Dembélé · Peterboro |
| 80' | 🟨 | Cian Bolger · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Payne · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Sincil Bank |
| Dan Butler · Peterboro |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jorge Grant · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 122.00 | 365.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 3.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1437.65 | 1494.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.25 | -31.13 |
| eye test v1 | -0.84 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| league points | 27.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.59 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.50 | 24.83 |
| state index | 0.13 | -0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |