← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Johnson
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Ipswich win | 85% | 11% | 1.12 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 22% | 10.00 | value: +124% |
| Bolton win | 5% | 66% | 23.00 | value: +1420% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 70% | 1.36 |
| Under | 30% | 3.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 3 | Shots | 29 |
| 0 | On target | 12 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | University of Bolton Stadium |