← EFL League One 2013-14 · Sat, Apr 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: C Breakspear
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Preston win | 67% | 58% | 1.46 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | 4.90 | value: +8% |
| Gillingham win | 13% | 20% | 7.38 | value: +45% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.