← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Bell
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 46% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
| Preston win | 25% | 3.94 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Watford −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.69 |
| Over | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Yáser Asprilla · Watford |
| 87' | 🟨 | Giorgi Chakvetadze · Watford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Liam Lindsay · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 36.00 | 857.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1588.82 | 1611.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.45 | -9.68 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.51 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.70 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| league points | 50.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.51 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.62 | -0.65 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.49 | 23.10 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.04 | 0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 0.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.31 | 1.01 |