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Preston 2–2 Blackburn

← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preston win37%2.71
Blackburn win35%2.75
Draw29%3.46

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Blackburn +050%1.95
Preston +050%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.94
Under50%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Sammie Szmodics · Blackburn
23'⚽Sam Gallagher · Blackburn
39'⚽Robbie Brady · Preston
43'⚽Emil Riis · Preston

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
16Shots6
8On target3
7Corners3
10Fouls12
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPrestonBlackburn
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.43
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.580.44
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.470.36
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.680.54
cards avg (last 5)2.401.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueDeepdale
coach days808.0016.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.290.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.40-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.206.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.221.78
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.17
dominance (last 5)0.280.53
elo1598.881538.58
elo momentum (last 5)38.50-21.57
eye test v1-0.67-0.12
eye trend v1-0.150.06
first sub minute (last 10)57.4054.40
form points (last 5)10.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.25
keeper form v10.730.66
league points48.0036.00
league rank8.0017.00
matches since blank6.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.0014.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)68.2077.40
possession avg (last 5)41.2054.20
rest days2.803.80
scorer concentration0.270.37
season ppg1.501.16
shot diff avg (last 5)-11.401.00
shots for avg (last 5)7.8012.20
skill v1-1.380.30
solidity v1-0.97-0.58
sot against avg (last 5)6.404.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.304.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.20
squad age23.1025.07
state index0.42-0.44
sterile dominance v1-0.420.42
threat rate (last 10)0.240.21
threat rate (last 3)0.180.22
threat rate (last 5)0.200.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.00
xg against avg (last 5)1.741.78
xg for avg (last 5)0.981.16