← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 21, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds win | 74% | 70% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 19% | 5.75 | value: +7% |
| Preston win | 9% | 11% | 11.50 | value: +25% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Preston −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.63 |
| Under | 40% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Will Keane · Preston |
| 6' | ⚽ | Daniel James · Leeds |
| 8' | 🟨 | Benjamin Whiteman · Preston |
| 34' | 🟨 | Alistair McCann · Preston |
| 38' | 🟨 | Crysencio Summerville · Leeds |
| 62' | 🟨 | Liam Lindsay · Preston |
| 67' | 🟨 | Georginio Rutter · Leeds |
| 76' | 🟨 | Junior Firpo · Leeds |
| 83' | 🟨 | David Cornell · Preston |
| 85' | 🟨 | Patrick Bamford · Leeds |
| 85' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| Ryan Ledson · Preston |
| 86' | 🟨 | Layton Stewart · Preston |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Joël Piroe · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 204.00 | 781.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1745.54 | 1560.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.25 | -0.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.20 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 51.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 7.88 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | -0.37 |
| solidity v1 | 1.73 | 0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.67 | 27.33 |
| state index | 1.27 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.99 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.59 | 1.29 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.86 | 1.14 |