← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 25, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 40% | 39% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.22 | fair |
| Cardiff win | 30% | 33% | 3.32 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Preston −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Robbie Brady · Preston |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ched Evans · Preston |
| 30' | 🟨 | Jamilu Collins · Cardiff |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kian Best · Preston |
| 48' | ⚽ | Milutin Osmajić · Preston |
| 52' | 🟨 | Robbie Brady · Preston |
| 52' | 🟥 | Robbie Brady · Preston |
| 77' | 🟨 | Freddie Woodman · Preston |
| 90' | ⚽ | Karlan Grant · Cardiff |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ike Ugbo · Cardiff |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 13 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days | 724.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1608.13 | 1586.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.66 | 16.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 28.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 14.79 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -0.74 |
| solidity v1 | 0.14 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.10 | 28.24 |
| state index | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.91 |