← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Nov 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry win | 36% | 39% | 2.65 | value: +3% |
| Preston win | 34% | 33% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Coventry +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Preston +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 38' | ⚽ | Duane Holmes · Preston |
| 40' | 🟨 | Kyle McFadzean · Coventry |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Alan Browne · Preston |
| 46' | 🟨 | Mads Frøkjær-Jensen · Preston |
| 71' | ⚽ | Milutin Osmajić · Preston |
| 82' | ⚽ | Haji Wright · Coventry |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robbie Brady · Preston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake Bidwell · Coventry |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Coventry |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days | 703.00 | 2439.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 10.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.11 | 4.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1586.77 | 1614.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.32 | -44.00 |
| eye test v1 | -1.28 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| league points | 22.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.04 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | 1.00 |
| solidity v1 | -0.18 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.10 | — |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.51 | 1.44 |