← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Donohue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 39% | 2.47 |
| Millwall win | 31% | 3.23 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Preston −0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.60 |
| Over | 40% | 2.46 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Mads Frøkjær-Jensen · Preston |
| 19' | 🟨 | Duane Holmes · Preston |
| 30' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Millwall |
| 61' | 🟨 | Greg Cunningham · Preston |
| 66' | 🟨 | Aidomo Emakhu · Millwall |
| 73' | 🟨 | Liam Millar · Preston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Liam Lindsay · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days | 689.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.94 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1595.47 | 1611.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.68 | 8.93 |
| eye test v1 | -1.19 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| league points | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 13.90 | 13.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.82 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.17 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | -0.51 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.10 | 24.71 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.07 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.17 |