← EFL Championship 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 30, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 37% | 35% | 2.65 | fair |
| West Brom win | 33% | 37% | 3.00 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 30% | 28% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| West Brom +0 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 1.58 |
| Over | 39% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Darnell Furlong · West Brom |
| 18' | 🟨 | Okay Yokuşlu · West Brom |
| 29' | ⚽ | Alex Mowatt · West Brom |
| 35' | 🟨 | Alistair McCann · Preston |
| 62' | ⚽ | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
| 81' | 🟨 | Brad Potts · Preston |
| 87' | 🟨 | Andrew Hughes · Preston |
| 87' | ⚽ | Kyle Bartley · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| coach days | 668.00 | 364.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1631.54 | 1622.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.96 | -0.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| league points | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.24 | 0.18 |
| solidity v1 | 0.92 | 0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.46 | 28.34 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.03 | 0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 0.94 |