← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 47% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.48 |
| Bristol City win | 25% | 3.97 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bristol City −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Watford −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ (og) | Harry Cornick · Watford |
| 27' | 🟨 | George Tanner · Bristol City |
| 54' | ⚽ | João Pedro · Watford |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 84' | 🟨 | Matty James · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anis Mehmeti · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 45.00 | 803.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.18 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1598.89 | 1575.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.75 | -6.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.52 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| league points | 56.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 4.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.67 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 27.76 |
| state index | -0.12 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.01 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |