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Watford 2–3 Huddersfield

← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Fri, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Webb

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Watford win54%1.81
Draw27%3.50
Huddersfield win19%5.28

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Huddersfield −0.7553%1.84
Watford −0.7547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under60%1.61
Over40%2.41

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'🟨Ryan Porteous · Watford
32'⚽Yáser Asprilla · Watford
44'⚽Jack Rudoni · Huddersfield
54'🟨João Pedro · Watford
55'⚽Matthew Pearson · Huddersfield
60'🟨David Kasumu · Huddersfield
82'⚽Kian Harratt · Huddersfield
90'🟨Daniel Bachmann · Watford
90'🟨Daniel Bachmann · Watford
90'🟨Hamza Choudhury · Watford
90'🟥Daniel Bachmann

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots8
5On target4
13Corners3
7Fouls10
3Yellow cards2
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricWatfordHuddersfield
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.10
box share (last 5)0.610.61
cards avg (last 5)1.801.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVicarage Road
· Watford
90'🟨Jonathan Hogg · Huddersfield
90'⚽Britt Assombalonga · Watford
coach days37.0065.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.13
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.60
corners for avg (last 5)4.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.651.73
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.05
dominance (last 5)0.490.35
elo1609.191561.79
elo momentum (last 5)-19.2230.89
eye test v1-0.68-1.35
eye trend v1-0.000.28
first sub minute (last 10)64.1042.30
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.201.32
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
keeper form v10.760.68
league points55.0039.00
league rank11.0021.00
matches since blank0.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.8054.60
possession avg (last 5)56.0030.40
rest days6.106.00
scorer concentration0.190.13
season ppg1.411.00
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-6.40
shots for avg (last 5)10.208.20
skill v10.28-3.34
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.502.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.002.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.20
squad age25.8825.36
state index0.120.17
sterile dominance v10.77-2.10
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.31
threat rate (last 5)0.180.27
travel km—241.10
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60