← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Apr 1, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton win | 46% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.25 |
| Watford win | 24% | 4.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Luton −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Watford −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.56 |
| Over | 37% | 2.63 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Gabriel Osho · Luton |
| 45' | 🟨 | João Pedro · Watford |
| 78' | 🟨 | Hamza Choudhury · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Allan Campbell · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cody Drameh · Luton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Allan Campbell · Luton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 2 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Luton | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Kenilworth Road |
| coach days | 151.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1692.50 | 1618.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.02 | -15.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.47 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| league points | 64.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 13.85 | 13.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.67 | 26.30 |
| state index | 0.78 | 0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | 0.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 26.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |