← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Feb 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 38% | 47% | 2.50 | value: +16% |
| Reading win | 32% | 27% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reading +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Watford +0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 1.67 |
| Over | 43% | 2.26 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Watford |
| 32' | 🟨 | Amadou Salif Mbengue · Reading |
| 48' | ⚽ | Ryan Porteous · Watford |
| 64' | 🟨 | Matheus Martins · Watford |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Thomas Ince · Reading |
| 76' | 🟨 | Hassane Kamara · Watford |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jeff Hendrick · Reading |
| 84' | 🟨 | Thomas Holmes · Reading |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mamadou Loum · Reading |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hamza Choudhury · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reading | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Select Car Leasing Stadium |
| João Pedro · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 368.00 | 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1532.20 | 1622.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.79 | -13.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.52 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.30 | 46.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.76 |
| league points | 37.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.94 | 25.84 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 47.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |