← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Martin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 40% | 42% | 2.39 | fair |
| Preston win | 31% | 30% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Norwich +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.80 |
| Over | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Teemu Pukki · Norwich |
| 16' | ⚽ | Kieran Dowell · Norwich |
| 28' | ⚽ | Kieran Dowell · Norwich |
| 44' | 🟨 | Gabriel Sara · Norwich |
| 55' | 🟨 | Grant Hanley · Norwich |
| 59' | 🟨 | Thomas Cannon · Preston |
| 61' | 🟨 | Dimitrios Giannoulis · Norwich |
| 69' | ⚽ | Teemu Pukki · Norwich |
| 74' | 🟨 | Robbie Brady · Preston |
| 75' | 🟨 | Liam Lindsay · Preston |
| 79' | 🟨 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 9 | Shots | 22 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| Ryan Ledson · Preston |
| 89' | 🟨 | Adam Idah · Norwich |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 409.00 | 13.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1600.40 | 1605.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.97 | -31.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.89 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| league points | 37.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | 0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.69 | 25.17 |
| state index | 0.08 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |