← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 22, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston win | 37% | 32% | 2.70 | fair |
| Blackpool win | 32% | 39% | 3.00 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Blackpool +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.62 |
| Over | 40% | 2.43 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Álvaro Carreras · Preston |
| 30' | ⚽ | Jerry Yates · Blackpool |
| 38' | ⚽ (pen) | Benjamin Whiteman · Preston |
| 45' | 🟨 | Charlie Patiño · Blackpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jordan Storey · Preston |
| 68' | ⚽ | Charlie Patiño · Blackpool |
| 81' | ⚽ | Jerry Yates · Blackpool |
| 89' | ⚽ (og) | Callum Connolly · Preston |
| 90' | ⚽ | CJ Hamilton · Blackpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Blackpool | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Bloomfield Road |
| coach days | 143.00 | 325.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1540.00 | 1610.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.79 | 4.19 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| league points | 16.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.36 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.11 | 25.87 |
| state index | -0.29 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.72 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |