← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Wed, Oct 12, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: K. Stroud
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City win | 39% | 42% | 2.47 | fair |
| Preston win | 32% | 32% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.39 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston −0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Bristol City −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.78 |
| Over | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Liam Lindsay · Preston |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jay Dasilva · Bristol City |
| 54' | ⚽ | Robert Atkinson · Bristol City |
| 67' | 🟨 | Zak Vyner · Bristol City |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ben Woodburn · Preston |
| 81' | 🟨 | Andreas Weimann · Bristol City |
| 82' | ⚽ | Andrew Hughes · Preston |
| 84' | 🟨 | Greg Cunningham · Preston |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Williams · Bristol City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robbie Brady · Preston |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bristol City | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.56 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ashton Gate |
| ⚽ |
| Robert Atkinson · Bristol City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 618.00 | 315.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.93 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1540.68 | 1627.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.81 | 12.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.84 |
| league points | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | -1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.76 | — |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |