← EFL Championship 2022-23 · Sat, Oct 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich win | 55% | 60% | 1.78 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.71 | fair |
| Preston win | 18% | 16% | 5.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston −0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Norwich −0.75 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.80 |
| Over | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Josh Sargent · Norwich |
| 25' | ⚽ | Emil Riis · Preston |
| 30' | 🟨 | Sam Byram · Norwich |
| 44' | 🟨 | Robbie Brady · Preston |
| 51' | ⚽ | Emil Riis · Preston |
| 55' | 🟨 | Álvaro Carreras · Preston |
| 59' | 🟨 | Alan Browne · Preston |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jordan Storey · Preston |
| 76' | ⚽ | Gabriel Sara · Norwich |
| 80' | ⚽ | Troy Parrott · Preston |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Norwich | Preston |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Carrow Road |
| Daniel Johnson · Preston |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 341.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1667.77 | 1614.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.56 | -16.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.10 | 55.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.87 |
| league points | 24.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.90 | -0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.13 | 25.86 |
| state index | 0.84 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.66 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |