← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, May 7, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 54% | 35% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.88 | value: +14% |
| Preston win | 21% | 36% | 4.57 | value: +64% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Preston +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Middlesbrough +0.75 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.75 |
| Under | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Alan Browne · Preston |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Dael Fry · Preston |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sepp van den Berg · Preston |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daniel Johnson · Preston |
| 45' | 🟨 | Luke Daniels · Middlesbrough |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paddy McNair · Middlesbrough |
| 48' | ⚽ | Marcus Tavernier · Middlesbrough |
| 53' | ⚽ | Emil Riis · Preston |
| 56' | 🟨 | Alistair McCann · Preston |
| 58' | 🟨 | Anfernee Dijksteel · Middlesbrough |
| 66' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Preston | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Deepdale |
| 🟨 |
| Dael Fry · Middlesbrough |
| 72' | 🟨 | Isaiah Jones · Middlesbrough |
| 73' | 🟥 | Paddy McNair · Middlesbrough |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Emil Riis · Preston |
| 84' | 🟨 | Matt Crooks · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 157.00 | 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1596.17 | 1639.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.19 | 10.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.50 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| league points | 61.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.03 | 27.26 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |