← EFL Championship 2021-22 · Sat, Jan 22, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Robinson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 50% | 42% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.32 | value: +3% |
| Derby win | 20% | 27% | 4.96 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −0.5 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Derby −0.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 1.58 |
| Over | 38% | 2.50 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Liam Thompson · Derby |
| 35' | 🟨 | Lewis Grabban · Nott'm Forest |
| 48' | ⚽ | Lewis Grabban · Nott'm Forest |
| 51' | 🟨 | Richard Stearman · Derby |
| 56' | 🟨 | Lee Buchanan · Derby |
| 82' | ⚽ | Brennan Johnson · Nott'm Forest |
| 88' | ⚽ (pen) | Tom Lawrence · Derby |
| 89' | 🟨 | Brice Samba · Nott'm Forest |
| 89' | 🟨 | Tom Lawrence · Derby |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathan Byrne · Derby |
| 90' | 🟥 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| Ravel Morrison · Derby |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 143.00 | 447.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1620.41 | 1583.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.51 | 53.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.79 |
| league points | 37.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.04 | 25.73 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 21.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |