← EFL Championship 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Eltringham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 46% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.40 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 26% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Nott'm Forest +0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over | 41% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Henrik Dalsgaard · Brentford |
| 61' | 🟨 | Tobias Figueiredo · Nott'm Forest |
| 64' | 🟨 | Brice Samba · Nott'm Forest |
| 64' | 🟨 | Ivan Toney · Brentford |
| 79' | 🟨 | Anthony Knockaert · Nott'm Forest |
| 81' | 🟨 | David Raya · Brentford |
| 83' | ⚽ | Josh Dasilva · Brentford |
| 88' | ⚽ | Ivan Toney · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Knockaert · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟥 | Anthony Knockaert · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| 🟨 |
| Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joe Worrall · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 72.00 | 803.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 3.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1540.94 | 1726.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.41 | 11.92 |
| eye test v1 | -1.31 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| league points | 13.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.93 | 24.15 |
| state index | -0.69 | 0.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 171.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |