← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 36% | 44% | 2.69 | value: +18% |
| Stoke win | 34% | 30% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| QPR +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Stoke +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Bright Osayi-Samuel · QPR |
| 27' | ⚽ | Sam Clucas · Stoke |
| 31' | ⚽ | Tyrese Campbell · Stoke |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jordan Hugill · QPR |
| 38' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · QPR |
| 41' | 🟨 | Geoff Cameron · QPR |
| 55' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Stoke |
| 71' | ⚽ | Bright Osayi-Samuel · QPR |
| 74' | 🟨 | Tommy Smith · Stoke |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ryan Manning · QPR |
| 88' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ilias Chair · QPR |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 198.00 | 410.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1537.67 | 1572.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.96 | 13.06 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.72 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 39.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.53 | 27.91 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 211.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |