← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Wed, Oct 23, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Langford
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 45% | 47% | 2.15 | fair |
| Hull win | 28% | 28% | 3.43 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Hull −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.76 |
| Under | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Tiago Silva · Nott'm Forest |
| 38' | ⚽ | Josh Magennis · Hull |
| 40' | 🟨 | Jack Robinson · Nott'm Forest |
| 48' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · Hull |
| 52' | ⚽ | Matty Cash · Nott'm Forest |
| 68' | 🟥 | Josh Magennis · Hull |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jarrod Bowen · Hull |
| 89' | 🟨 | George Long · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brice Samba · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | The City Ground |
| coach days | 144.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1645.65 | 1572.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.62 | 0.39 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.61 |
| league points | 22.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 3.24 | 4.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.90 | 26.50 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | -1.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 103.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |