← EFL Championship 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR win | 43% | 40% | 2.28 | fair |
| Blackburn win | 30% | 34% | 3.20 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.67 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| QPR −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.66 |
| Under | 41% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Corry Evans · Blackburn |
| 30' | ⚽ | Nahki Wells · QPR |
| 45' | 🟨 | Darragh Lenihan · Blackburn |
| 49' | ⚽ | Eberechi Eze · QPR |
| 56' | 🟨 | Yoann Barbet · QPR |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Bradley Dack · Blackburn |
| 58' | 🟨 | Amari'i Bell · Blackburn |
| 60' | ⚽ | Bright Osayi-Samuel · QPR |
| 65' | 🟨 | Geoff Cameron · QPR |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jordan Hugill · QPR |
| 86' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | QPR | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Hugill · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Manning · QPR |
| 90' | 🟨 | Derrick Williams · Blackburn |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 65.00 | 976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1542.40 | 1603.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.67 | 2.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.44 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.22 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.40 | 26.11 |
| state index | -0.05 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 290.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |