← EFL Championship 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R Jones
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Leeds win | 49% | 30% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.69 | fair |
| Preston win | 24% | 43% | 4.03 | value: +72% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 22 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.