⚽ Tomulator
Overview
β—ˆDashboardπŸ“…Today's gamesβ—ŽState of play
Money
πŸ’·Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasonsπŸ“Metricsβ–€Data sources
Engine room
🎲SimulationsπŸ§ͺLab≣Catalog?How this works

Preston 3–1 Sheffield United

← EFL Championship 2007-08 Β· Sat, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C Oliver

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preston win41%2.25
Sheffield United win31%3.25
Draw28%3.25

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots12
7On target5
4Corners5
7Fouls11
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPrestonSheffield United
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
cards avg (last 5)1.401.80
coach days3740.003041.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d4.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.18
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.806.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.532.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.050.03
dominance (last 5)0.490.39
elo1539.861553.64
elo momentum (last 5)43.9842.29
form points (last 5)13.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.15
league points50.0053.00
league rank15.0012.00
matches since blank1.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
rest days7.007.00
season ppg1.251.36
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.20-4.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.408.00
state index0.670.54
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.80