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Preston 2–3 Southend

← EFL Championship 2006-07 Β· Mon, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC Β· ref: A Hall

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

β€œMarket” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β€” the world's best guess. β€œModel” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β€” it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Preston win56%1.66
Draw26%3.60
Southend win18%5.00

across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
12Shots15
7On target8
8Corners10
17Fouls14
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in β€” computed only from games before this one.

MetricPrestonSouthend
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
cards avg (last 5)2.201.80
coach days3385.00β€”
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.80-2.80
corners against avg (last 5)6.407.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.792.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.080.12
dominance (last 5)0.420.46
elo1564.781450.10
elo momentum (last 5)-30.35-10.35
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.051.57
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.30
league points68.0039.00
league rank5.0023.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.003.00
matches since win3.003.00
rest days2.003.00
season ppg1.660.95
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.40-1.60
shots for avg (last 5)8.4011.40
state index-0.10-0.58
venue ppg (last 5)2.400.80