← FIFA World Cup 2018 · Sat, Jun 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Faghani
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France win | 40% | 49% | 2.55 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Argentina win | 29% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Marcos Rojo · Argentina |
| 11' | 🟨 | Marcos Rojo · Argentina |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoine Griezmann · France |
| 13' | ⚽ (pen) | Antoine Griezmann · France |
| 19' | 🟨 | Nicolás Tagliafico · Argentina |
| 19' | 🟨 | Nicolás Tagliafico · Argentina |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Argentina |
| 41' | ⚽ | Ángel Di María · Argentina |
| 43' | 🟨 | Javier Mascherano · Argentina |
| 43' | 🟨 | Javier Mascherano · Argentina |
| 48' | ⚽ | Gabriel Mercado · Argentina |
| 48' | ⚽ | Gabriel Mercado · Argentina |
| 50' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Argentina |
| 50' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Argentina |
| 57' | ⚽ | Benjamin Pavard · France |
| 57' | ⚽ | Benjamin Pavard · France |
| 64' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 64' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 68' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 68' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé · France |
| 72' | 🟨 | Blaise Matuidi · France |
| 72' | 🟨 | Blaise Matuidi · France |
| 73' | 🟨 | Benjamin Pavard · France |
| 73' | 🟨 | Benjamin Pavard · France |
| 90'+3' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Argentina |
| 90'+3' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Argentina |
| 90'+3' | 🟨 | Olivier Giroud · France |
| 90' | 🟨 | Olivier Giroud · France |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolás Otamendi · Argentina |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sergio Agüero · Argentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | France | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 2190.00 | 394.00 |
| congestion 21d | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| elo | 1922.75 | 1849.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.25 | -38.68 |
| eye test v1 |
| venue | Kazan' Arena |
| 0.01 |
| -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.75 | 56.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | — | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | — |
| league points | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.33 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.33 |
| skill v1 | 1.03 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.50 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 30.03 |
| state index | 1.44 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 1.58 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |