← FIFA World Cup 2022 · Fri, Dec 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Tello
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal win | 52% | 69% | 1.89 | value: +29% ⚠ |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.95 | fair |
| South Korea win | 23% | 11% | 4.50 | fair |
across 4 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Portugal |
| 5' | ⚽ | Ricardo Horta · Portugal |
| 27' | ⚽ | Kim Young-Gwon · South Korea |
| 27' | ⚽ | Young-Gwon Kim · South Korea |
| 36' | 🟨 | Lee Kang-In · South Korea |
| 36' | 🟨 | Kang-in Lee · South Korea |
| 90'+1' | ⚽ | Hwang Hee-Chan · South Korea |
| 90'+2' | 🟨 | Hwang Hee-Chan · South Korea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hwang Hee-chan · South Korea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Hwang Hee-chan · South Korea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | South Korea | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1584.00 | 3014.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | — | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) |
| venue | Education City Stadium |
| — |
| 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | — | 5.60 |
| elo | 1800.15 | 1930.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.14 | 13.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | — | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.75 | 50.75 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.75 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.50 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 1.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.75 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | — | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 27.23 |
| state index | 0.62 | 1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.05 | 0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | — | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |