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Alcorcon 1–3 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, May 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Perez Pallas, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win36%2.70
Draw33%2.97
Tenerife win31%3.14

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Anthony Lozano · Tenerife
30'⚽Gaku Shibasaki · Tenerife
33'🟨Camille · Tenerife
48'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
49'⚽Óscar Plano · Alcorcon
57'⚽Tyronne · Tenerife
79'🟨Iván Alejo · Alcorcon
81'🟨Camille · Tenerife
81'🟥Camille · Tenerife
83'🟨Dani Hernández · Tenerife
84'🟨Lucien Owona · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.40
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.33
box share (last 5)0.360.61
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days239.00574.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.362.95
elo1418.72
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
1518.43
elo momentum (last 5)26.12-3.52
eye test v1-1.09-0.59
eye trend v10.230.38
first sub minute (last 10)51.0054.60
form points (last 5)8.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.700.99
keeper form v10.730.71
league points44.0060.00
league rank18.005.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)66.4072.80
possession avg (last 5)41.2050.20
rest days7.717.71
scorer concentration0.350.32
season ppg1.131.54
skill v1-1.60-0.31
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.60
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.603.40
state index-0.12-0.15
sterile dominance v1-0.490.22
threat rate (last 10)0.200.18
threat rate (last 3)0.170.24
threat rate (last 5)0.180.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20