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Levante UD 3–1 Ucam Murcia

← Segunda División 2016 · Fri, May 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Levante UD win52%1.88
Draw29%3.40
Ucam Murcia win19%5.03

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

24'🟨Fran Pérez · Ucam Murcia
34'⚽Jona · Ucam Murcia
40'⚽Natxo Insa · Levante UD
45'🟨Tekio · Ucam Murcia
49'🟨Iban Salvador · Ucam Murcia
54'🟨José Campaña · Levante UD
63'🟨Jefferson Lerma · Levante UD
64'🟨Jason · Levante UD
69'🟨Vullnet Basha · Ucam Murcia
70'⚽Juan Muñoz · Levante UD
87'🟨Verza · Levante UD
90'🟨Tito · Ucam Murcia
90'⚽Juan Muñoz · Levante UD

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLevante UDUcam Murcia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.42
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.55
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.51
box share (last 5)0.610.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days329.00176.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.723.50
elo1562.45
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueCiutat de València
1460.87
elo momentum (last 5)4.7933.88
eye test v1-0.320.06
eye trend v1-0.080.15
first sub minute (last 10)45.6050.80
form points (last 5)8.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.200.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.741.10
keeper form v10.820.78
league points81.0048.00
league rank1.0015.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0058.80
possession avg (last 5)47.8041.80
rest days6.046.04
scorer concentration0.330.34
season ppg2.081.23
skill v1-0.77-2.33
sot against avg (last 5)5.803.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.40
sot for avg (last 3)4.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.005.00
state index0.350.10
sterile dominance v1-0.32-1.48
threat rate (last 10)0.210.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.24
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.00