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Ucam Murcia 3–1 Huesca

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Luis Pulido Santana, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ucam Murcia win37%2.65
Huesca win32%3.07
Draw31%3.11

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Jona · Ucam Murcia
22'⚽Jona · Ucam Murcia
27'🟨Samu Sáiz · Huesca
56'⚽Vinícius Araújo · Huesca
58'🟨Gonzalo Melero · Huesca
66'🟨Tekio · Ucam Murcia
69'🟨Juande · Ucam Murcia
74'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Ucam Murcia
90'🟨Pere Milla · Ucam Murcia
90'🟨Carlos Akapo · Huesca
90'⚽David Morillas · Ucam Murcia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUcam MurciaHuesca
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.600.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.540.31
box share (last 5)0.440.58
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days170.00536.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.211.83
elo1445.49
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de La Condomina
1514.25
elo momentum (last 5)7.25-3.19
eye test v10.37-0.15
eye trend v10.220.36
first sub minute (last 10)51.2054.90
form points (last 5)7.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.95
keeper form v10.77—
league points45.0056.00
league rank17.006.00
matches since blank0.006.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)59.8075.40
possession avg (last 5)43.0053.00
rest days6.297.11
scorer concentration0.310.16
season ppg1.181.47
skill v1-2.150.15
sot against avg (last 5)3.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.103.50
sot for avg (last 3)4.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.804.00
state index-0.19-0.10
sterile dominance v1-1.380.11
threat rate (last 10)0.210.22
threat rate (last 3)0.190.26
threat rate (last 5)0.270.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.601.60