⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Girona 0–0 Alcorcon

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, May 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Victor Areces Franco, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win59%1.65
Draw26%3.75
Alcorcon win15%6.48

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'🟨Fran Sandaza · Girona
15'🟨Unai Elgezabal · Alcorcon
41'🟨Pablo Pérez · Alcorcon
55'🟨Carlos Bellvis · Alcorcon
62'🟨Kiko Olivas · Girona
90'🟨Victor Perez · Alcorcon

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaAlcorcon
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.41
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.400.39
box share (last 5)0.730.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1249.00231.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.782.27
elo1554.63
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Montilivi
1413.50
elo momentum (last 5)-1.904.58
eye test v10.34-0.76
eye trend v1-0.200.30
first sub minute (last 10)58.4051.60
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals for avg (last 5)2.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.70
keeper form v10.700.73
league points68.0043.00
league rank2.0018.00
matches since blank7.002.00
matches since clean sheet5.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0069.20
possession avg (last 5)46.2046.00
rest days7.047.02
scorer concentration0.220.35
season ppg1.791.13
skill v1-0.47-0.97
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.502.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.003.00
state index0.05-0.43
sterile dominance v1-0.69-0.16
threat rate (last 10)0.300.21
threat rate (last 3)0.340.20
threat rate (last 5)0.290.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.00