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Lugo 0–0 Ucam Murcia

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win40%2.45
Draw30%3.20
Ucam Murcia win30%3.29

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟥Hugo Álvarez · Ucam Murcia
17'🟨Iban Salvador · Ucam Murcia
82'🟨Joselu · Lugo
86'🟨Tekio · Ucam Murcia
88'🟨Tito · Ucam Murcia
90'🟨Biel Ribas · Ucam Murcia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoUcam Murcia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.360.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.44
box share (last 5)0.730.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days317.00164.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.553.27
elo1447.81
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAnxo Carro
1443.66
elo momentum (last 5)-17.01-5.19
eye test v1-0.680.22
eye trend v1-0.030.56
first sub minute (last 10)52.2053.40
form points (last 5)4.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.601.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.000.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.79
keeper form v10.730.78
league points48.0044.00
league rank11.0017.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet5.001.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2060.00
possession avg (last 5)57.2046.00
rest days6.967.75
scorer concentration0.380.31
season ppg1.301.19
skill v10.42-1.91
sot against avg (last 5)5.403.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.005.60
state index-0.47-0.41
sterile dominance v11.22-1.27
threat rate (last 10)0.160.21
threat rate (last 3)0.120.26
threat rate (last 5)0.120.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00