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Girona 1–2 Ucam Murcia

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ruben Eiriz Mata, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win58%1.67
Draw26%3.74
Ucam Murcia win15%6.33

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

12'⚽Portu · Girona
26'⚽Jona · Ucam Murcia
34'🟨Iban Salvador · Ucam Murcia
51'🟨Tekio · Ucam Murcia
56'🟨Aday Benítez · Girona
69'⚽Pere Milla · Ucam Murcia
84'🟨Hugo Álvarez · Ucam Murcia
85'🟨Juande · Ucam Murcia
88'🟨Juande · Ucam Murcia
88'🟥Juande · Ucam Murcia
90'🟨Aday Benítez · Girona
90'🟥Aday Benítez · Girona
90'🟨Fernando Martínez · Ucam Murcia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaUcam Murcia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.410.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.33
box share (last 5)0.590.43
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days1221.00142.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.633.27
elo1557.29
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Montilivi
1426.98
elo momentum (last 5)-40.36-5.19
eye test v10.70-0.75
eye trend v1-0.120.41
first sub minute (last 10)59.2049.40
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.490.94
keeper form v10.760.58
league points62.0038.00
league rank2.0018.00
matches since blank3.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)72.2061.40
possession avg (last 5)51.4044.40
rest days7.106.10
scorer concentration0.220.31
season ppg1.821.12
skill v1-0.28-1.87
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.70
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.80
state index-0.27-0.53
sterile dominance v1-0.67-0.80
threat rate (last 10)0.300.20
threat rate (last 3)0.280.25
threat rate (last 5)0.310.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.20