⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Getafe CF 1–1 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Getafe CF win56%1.74
Draw28%3.48
Gimnastic win16%6.16

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟨Mossa · Gimnastic
25'⚽Francisco Portillo · Getafe CF
46'⚽Achille Emana · Gimnastic
66'🟨Juan Cala · Getafe CF
67'🟨Francisco Molinero · Getafe CF
68'🟨Sergio Tejera · Gimnastic
77'🟨Sergio Mora · Getafe CF
90'🟨Cata Díaz · Getafe CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGetafe CFGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.38—
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.31—
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.36—
box share (last 5)0.68—
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days233.00142.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.703.43
elo1508.62
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueColiseum Alfonso Pérez
1415.93
elo momentum (last 5)34.511.71
eye test v1-0.17-0.29
eye trend v1-0.240.01
first sub minute (last 10)58.9051.00
form points (last 5)10.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.17
keeper form v10.650.71
league points54.0040.00
league rank3.0017.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.8072.20
possession avg (last 5)45.0050.60
rest days6.087.00
scorer concentration0.330.11
season ppg1.591.18
skill v1-1.38-0.34
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.204.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.334.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.404.20
state index0.59-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.990.09
threat rate (last 10)0.250.22
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.270.21
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.60