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Ucam Murcia 0–1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ucam Murcia win34%2.85
Draw33%2.96
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win33%2.97

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

26'⚽Javi Guerra · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
72'🟨Unai Albizua · Ucam Murcia
74'🟨Adrián Embarba · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
78'🟨Zé Castro · Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUcam MurciaRayo Vallecano de Madrid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.30
box share (last 5)0.440.56
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days136.0074.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.501.90
elo1438.241454.29
elo momentum (last 5)6.7034.30
eye test v1
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de La Condomina
-1.47
-0.84
eye trend v1-0.370.18
first sub minute (last 10)55.0054.60
form points (last 5)6.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.99
keeper form v10.580.75
league points38.0037.00
league rank17.0018.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet2.002.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)59.8075.60
possession avg (last 5)43.0057.20
rest days7.007.90
scorer concentration0.310.18
season ppg1.151.12
skill v1-2.130.47
sot against avg (last 5)5.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.402.50
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.402.60
state index-0.300.06
sterile dominance v1-0.451.04
threat rate (last 10)0.180.18
threat rate (last 3)0.130.14
threat rate (last 5)0.150.15
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80