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Alcorcon 0–3 Getafe CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Draw34%2.90
Alcorcon win34%2.90
Getafe CF win33%2.98

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'⚽ (og)David Navarro · Getafe CF
44'⚽ (og)Tropi · Getafe CF
45'🟨Álvaro Giménez · Alcorcon
48'🟨Alejandro Faurlin · Getafe CF
78'🟨Damián Suárez · Getafe CF
80'🟨Iván Alejo · Alcorcon
82'⚽Jorge Molina · Getafe CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.29
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.40
box share (last 5)0.420.64
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days197.00227.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.991.84
elo1408.92
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
1492.30
elo momentum (last 5)-29.1317.63
eye test v1-1.100.05
eye trend v10.320.08
first sub minute (last 10)56.5059.90
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.800.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.670.95
keeper form v10.660.61
league points36.0051.00
league rank20.006.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.0067.20
possession avg (last 5)46.6046.40
rest days8.837.92
scorer concentration0.400.31
season ppg1.091.55
skill v1-1.45-1.14
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)2.504.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.404.80
state index-0.77-0.01
sterile dominance v1-0.68-0.83
threat rate (last 10)0.200.26
threat rate (last 3)0.260.31
threat rate (last 5)0.230.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.40