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Oviedo 2–0 Ucam Murcia

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Saul Ais Reig, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo win52%1.89
Draw30%3.25
Ucam Murcia win18%5.27

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Toché · Oviedo
21'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Ucam Murcia
31'🟨Christian Fernández · Oviedo
35'🟨Juande · Ucam Murcia
72'🟨Lucas Torró · Oviedo
75'🟨Hector Verdes · Oviedo
90'🟨Vullnet Basha · Ucam Murcia
90'⚽Borja Dominguez · Oviedo

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricOviedoUcam Murcia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.32
box share (last 5)0.580.47
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days312.00129.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.492.58
elo1493.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueJorge Garbajosa
1448.85
elo momentum (last 5)0.6215.10
eye test v1-0.73-1.41
eye trend v10.38-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)54.1049.70
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)0.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.79
keeper form v10.760.56
league points49.0038.00
league rank6.0015.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.8061.40
possession avg (last 5)49.6045.60
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.330.31
season ppg1.531.19
skill v1-0.65-1.78
sot against avg (last 5)4.804.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.003.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.002.40
state index0.14-0.09
sterile dominance v1-0.24-0.21
threat rate (last 10)0.220.17
threat rate (last 3)0.260.15
threat rate (last 5)0.230.14
venue ppg (last 5)3.001.40