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Alcorcon 1–2 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Alcorcon win39%2.53
Draw34%2.89
Valladolid win28%3.51

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽David Navarro · Alcorcon
28'⚽Juan Villar · Valladolid
37'🟨Álex Pérez · Valladolid
45'🟨Lucien Owona · Alcorcon
45'⚽ (pen)Juan Villar · Valladolid
77'🟨Carlos Bellvis · Alcorcon
88'🟨Luciano Balbi · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAlcorconValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.29
box share (last 5)0.430.55
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days169.00261.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.012.11
elo1440.39
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueSanto Domingo
1458.18
elo momentum (last 5)-13.35-12.73
eye test v1-0.97-0.61
eye trend v10.03-0.41
first sub minute (last 10)58.3060.30
form points (last 5)4.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.820.99
keeper form v10.770.67
league points33.0039.00
league rank17.0011.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win6.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)65.4076.80
possession avg (last 5)48.2048.60
rest days8.837.92
scorer concentration0.410.28
season ppg1.141.34
skill v1-1.20-0.02
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.004.10
sot for avg (last 3)2.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)2.803.00
state index-0.63-0.55
sterile dominance v1-0.120.13
threat rate (last 10)0.190.23
threat rate (last 3)0.180.19
threat rate (last 5)0.170.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.201.20