⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Ucam Murcia 2–0 Getafe CF

← Segunda División 2016 · Sat, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ucam Murcia win37%2.67
Draw32%3.04
Getafe CF win31%3.12

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'🟨Álvaro Jiménez · Getafe CF
13'⚽Juan Góngora · Ucam Murcia
19'🟨Unai Albizua · Ucam Murcia
28'🟨Manuel Sánchez · Ucam Murcia
43'⚽Jona · Ucam Murcia
52'🟨Ritchie Kitoko · Ucam Murcia
67'🟨Juan Góngora · Ucam Murcia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricUcam MurciaGetafe CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.330.42
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.40
box share (last 5)0.620.59
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days107.00198.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.772.67
elo1432.17
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de La Condomina
1474.12
elo momentum (last 5)-4.53-4.20
eye test v1-0.55-0.28
eye trend v1-0.120.31
first sub minute (last 10)50.4059.00
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.740.79
keeper form v10.680.64
league points33.0044.00
league rank18.006.00
matches since blank9.006.00
matches since clean sheet5.002.00
matches since win2.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)67.4068.00
possession avg (last 5)49.4048.00
rest days7.005.90
scorer concentration0.270.28
season ppg1.141.52
skill v1-0.91-0.95
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.00
state index-0.40-0.46
sterile dominance v1-0.13-0.42
threat rate (last 10)0.200.24
threat rate (last 3)0.190.23
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80