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Zaragoza 1–2 Gimnastic

← Segunda División 2016 · Sun, Feb 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jorge Figueroa Vazquez, Spain

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win49%1.97
Draw30%3.23
Gimnastic win20%4.78

across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽Ángel Rodríguez · Zaragoza
15'🟨Iago Bouzon · Gimnastic
24'🟨Sergio Tejera · Gimnastic
30'⚽Juan Delgado · Gimnastic
73'⚽Daisuke Suzuki · Gimnastic
78'🟨Juan Delgado · Gimnastic
80'🟨Mohammed Djetei · Gimnastic
86'🟨Lévy Madinda · Gimnastic

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaGimnastic
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.40
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.24
box share (last 5)0.590.63
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days148.0087.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.792.23
elo1425.01
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueLa Romareda
1391.70
elo momentum (last 5)-1.3628.65
eye test v1-0.62-0.56
eye trend v10.25-0.23
first sub minute (last 10)62.3053.90
form points (last 5)5.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.99
keeper form v10.680.63
league points32.0026.00
league rank14.0021.00
matches since blank1.003.00
matches since clean sheet12.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)60.8070.80
possession avg (last 5)47.2053.00
rest days7.008.08
scorer concentration0.330.17
season ppg1.231.00
skill v1-1.76-0.33
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.203.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.603.20
state index-0.45-0.17
sterile dominance v1-1.04-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.210.20
threat rate (last 3)0.260.23
threat rate (last 5)0.260.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.80